The Australian Dollar (AUD) has staged a modest recovery after falling nearly 3.6% from its monthly highs. As AUD/USD approaches a critical resistance zone, its rebound remains vulnerable, with the broader outlook still favoring the downside. The weekly close will be pivotal in determining the pair’s direction into the month’s end.
Key Technical Levels
The AUD/USD pair has snapped back to the 0.6511–0.6527 zone, a key pivot area defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2023 advance and the July close low. However, this former support now acts as resistance. A sustained move above this level could bring the 52-week moving average and the 0.6631–0.6632 range into focus, a critical barrier defined by the 38.2% retracement of the September decline.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.6414–0.6433, marked by the 78.6% retracement of the October advance and the April close low. A break below this threshold could signal further losses, potentially targeting the 0.6380 region, where a multi-year trendline lies. A close below this level would threaten a breakout from a long-term consolidation pattern, exposing subsequent support levels at 0.6335, 0.6283, and as low as the 0.6201–0.6210 range, encompassing the 2022 low close and 2008 low close.
Broader Outlook
The broader trend for AUD/USD remains bearish as long as the price stays below its 52-week moving average. For the recovery to gain traction, the pair needs to breach the 0.6631–0.6632 resistance area, with further targets at 0.6751 and 0.6810–0.6819. However, if the weekly close remains below the key pivot zone at 0.6511–0.6527, downside risks will persist.
Trading Perspective
For traders, the current focus is on the weekly close. If AUD/USD fails to break above 0.6527, the pair is likely to face renewed selling pressure. Any rallies toward 0.6632 are expected to remain capped unless accompanied by strong momentum, signaling a potential reversal. On the other hand, a break below 0.6414 could fuel a deeper decline, setting the stage for further bearish momentum.
Economic Calendar and Market Drivers
Upcoming economic data from both Australia and the U.S. will likely influence AUD/USD’s movement. Key events include Australian employment figures and U.S. economic data, which will provide further cues on interest rate expectations and overall market sentiment.
With the Australian Dollar at a critical juncture, traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely, as the pair remains vulnerable to both technical and fundamental developments.
