The ASX 200 futures (SPI 200) closed at a fresh record high on Thursday, briefly retesting the 8500 level. However, thin trading conditions due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday raise doubts about the sustainability of this move. With low liquidity and subdued trading volumes, the record high seems more a result of market drift than a strong bullish push.

Key Resistance at 8500 and Bearish Signals

Despite the record close, the 8500 level remains a strong resistance zone. The market has tested this level multiple times without achieving a convincing breakout. Additionally, a potential double-top formation around 8500 signals a bearish reversal pattern, casting uncertainty over the outlook.

Daily trading volume was the lowest in five sessions, reflecting the thin market conditions. This lack of conviction in the rally suggests that the gains may not hold, especially as the ASX 200 futures broke lower from a previously bullish channel.

Wall Street Influence and Broader Market Weakness

The unconvincing performance of Wall Street indices adds to the cautious sentiment. Futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all printed modest gains but remained within prior bearish ranges. The S&P 500, for instance, continues to trade below its record high, offering little support for the ASX to push higher.

Outlook and Key Levels to Watch

The bearish bias persists, with rallies expected to fade. A move down toward 8400 is anticipated, with additional support levels at 8378, 8348 (Volume Point of Control), and 8307 coming into focus if selling pressure intensifies.

Caution Ahead of Month-End Flows

With month-end flows and a quiet trading day ahead, unpredictable price spikes are possible. Traders should exercise caution, focusing on smaller timeframes for short-term opportunities or waiting for clearer signals on higher timeframes.

While the ASX 200 futures have achieved a record close, the thin trading environment and bearish technical signals suggest caution is warranted in the near term.